Monday, August 8, 2011

Historical rhymes - past stock ideas

Certainly you could look at the 52-week low list, but there is plenty of overwhelming noise there at the moment.  Apparently, like 3 weeks ago the stock market was cheap.  Stuff like fat corporate margins, large cash balances, and the super alluring low forward earnings ratio.  That wasn't the case in hindsight.  History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes.  I think looking at past historical events is just as useful as looking at past stock ideas, and note that both exercises can be healthy for investors.  Good stock ideas from 6 months ago are better ideas now for the most part.

A couple names from my archives I've been revisiting:
Owens & Minor which is at a similar price as when I wrote it up, but the company has continued to grow.  The company got sold down the other week when guidance was a tad below expectations and now the broader selloff is combining for a 1-2 punch.  Such an instance was actually a scenario I mentioned that would get me interested in the stock.  With a 3% dividend yield, strong balance sheet, and acyclical products, it's a name that could allow one to sleep well at night but still hold upside.

Helen of Troy, which is again at a similar price as when I wrote it up, but the company has continued to grow and garner a mention in the Barron's Roundtable a few weeks back.  There is some debt on the balance sheet, but debt:fcf is about 2.8x and interest coverage about 7x.  The company is in a steady business with most of its debt long term and the rest from a revolver.

Full House Resorts (original and update) which has just tanked despite announcing some additional revenue sources that don't require much capital.  On the other hand, the Grand Victoria acquisition was done at the valuation of my worst case scenario.  They announce results today and the conference should give some additional color on what they see in their casinos.  This company has more moving parts in that historical results are of little use in the future so a little more pencil sharpening is necessary than for companies like OMI and HELE.

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